![]() The statement said: “The government of Eritrea has agreed to withdraw its forces out of the Ethiopian border. “Eritrea agrees to withdraw its forces out of Ethiopian border”, Fana Broadcasting Corporation, 26 March 2021. On 26 March, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed announced that Eritrean troops would withdraw “effective immediately”. Hide FootnoteThe presence of Eritrean and Amhara forces fighting alongside federal soldiers has galvanised Tigrayan resistance to the intervention. On the build-up to the conflict, see Crisis Group Africa Briefings N☁60, Toward an End to Ethiopia’s Federal-Tigray Feud, 14 August 2020 and N☁62, Steering Ethiopia’s Tigray Crisis Away from Conflict, 30 October 2020. For an account of the conflict’s first month, see Crisis Group Africa Briefing N☁67, Finding a Path to Peace in Ethiopia’s Tigray Region, 11 February 2021. Neither side appears poised to achieve a definitive victory, despite the federal government’s success in pushing Tigray’s leadership out of Mekelle. The war in Tigray has become a grinding stalemate. First steps along these lines could – if all goes well – eventually usher in talks between the federal government and Tigrayan representatives. Getting Eritrean forces out may not be easy, given Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki’s apparent determination to crush the Tigrayan leadership, but Ethiopia’s foreign partners should hold Abiy to his pledge that these forces will leave. Addis Ababa should also tacitly allow aid groups to negotiate access to Tigray-held areas. To stave off the risk of mass starvation it is critical that ploughing and planting take place as Tigray’s rainy season arrives in the next few months. Notably, they should demand a cessation of hostilities that at least allows for rapidly expanded aid delivery. Direct talks between the parties appear a distant prospect at present, given that Prime Minister Abiy rejects the notion of engaging Tigray leaders he portrays as traitors. For now, the U.S., EU, AU, UN Security Council and other actors should press for more limited but critical gains. Urgent measures are needed to stem the tragedy. The parties’ positioning means that the conflict could well last for months, or even years, an outcome that would be even more disastrous for Tigray and the rest of the country. The Tigrayan resistance appears to enjoy broad support in the region, while federal authorities and their allies are determined to capture its leaders and put them on trial. None appears capable of achieving one in the near term. All sides are fixated on securing a military victory. Eritrean soldiers have their heaviest presence in northern Tigray and Amhara forces patrol western Tigray and the far south. ![]() It currently operates primarily from rural areas in central and southern Tigray, while federal troops control the main roads and urban areas. ![]() It is led by the removed Tigrayan leaders and commanded by former high-ranking Ethiopian National Defence Force officers. The Tigrayan leadership, though driven from power in Mekelle, the region’s capital, has rallied under the banner of the Tigray Defence Forces, an armed resistance group. Led by the U.S., European Union, African Union and UN, external actors should press for a pause in the fighting as an urgent priority so as to allow increased aid delivery – and keep demanding that the parties pursue a negotiated settlement.Īll sides in the conflict in Ethiopia’s northernmost region appear to be girding for a protracted battle. While mounting evidence of abuses and international pressure have forced concessions from Addis Ababa, including an announcement that Eritrean forces will withdraw, the war looks set to continue. This move added to Tigrayans’ sense of injustice and broadened backing for the rebellion, particularly as Eritrean and Amhara combatants stand accused of atrocities against civilians. As part of the federal war effort, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed enlisted forces from Eritrea and also from Ethiopia’s Amhara region. Tigray’s ousted leadership appears to have consolidated its position in rural areas and its resistance commands support from a Tigrayan population that values the region’s autonomy. Though Ethiopia’s federal government claimed the war in the country’s Tigray region was over in November, fighting continues – at great cost to a stricken population trapped in a multi-sided conflict.
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